Dykes, Dambusters and Mythbusters An Epoch of Man-made Flooding and Promethean Hubris

Author: Zak Arney

When Prometheus stole fire down to earth from the heavenly skies above, his punishment was eternal suffering. And after each-and-every day when his liver was plucked asunder by Zeus’ ravaging eagle, a new one would regrow overnight to ensure his perennial condition. Of the multitude of interpretations and warnings arising from this myth, man’s relationship with the elements endures.

In times before the construction of the Tarbela dam, Indus folk would navigate the river by sailboat, traversing with an intimate knowledge of the currents and winds. Now murkier waters are crossed back and forth with the chug-chug chugging of diesel-powered vessels. Individuals are no longer beholden to the ways of the water and the wind. But what happens when the flows are halted entirely. If the Indus is our mother, the one who feeds and waters our bodies and souls, then what happens to us when we re-engineer her rhythms. When a dam is constructed what does it do to our relationship with water? Do we develop a Promethean hubris of men who imagine themselves as Gods, fatally forgetting that nature birthed us all? 14.3 billion cubic meters of water sits in an earthy bowl, reinforced by concrete. When the ancient flow of the Indus becomes a stagnant pool stretching almost 100km from tip to tail, what is the psychological effect? Eternal damnation?

We make dams to control the flow of rivers. In that construction, we capture the kinetic energy of the water into a fixed container. At our discretion we turn the taps on and off. Designed with some anticipation for overflow capacity, dam levels will fluctuate throughout the year as monsoon flows, snow and glacial melts occur in the summer months. Pakistan boasts 7000 glaciers. Ice and snow in the Hindu Kush and Himalayan mountain ranges are a vital source of water. The rivers, which flow through 16 countries in Asia provide fresh water to 240 million people in the mountains and another 1.65 billion downstream. 80% of glaciers in the Hindu Kush and Himalayan mountain ranges are forecast to melt by the end of this century if climate change is not significantly impeded. This immediate flood threat to the Indus River Valley basin will continue to grow over the coming years. The rapid glacial melt also poses a long-term existential threat of water scarcity.

Learning from Chinese History of River Harmony and Disharmony

After visiting Tarbela dam, I was awestruck by the magnificence of its engineering, but in equal measure arose an anxiety as to what happens when river systems fail. I was reminded of the bursting of the yellow river dykes in 1930s China. Dykes built along the yellow river have long been used to divert the flow of the river and to control the water supply in the breadbasket of China’s Henan province. Its flood plains have been well chronicled as a cradle of civilisation for early Chinese agrarian based polities. Dykes channelled water to serve the needs of dynastic and feudal interests. As nationalism emerged as the force de jour in the aftermath of the Qing Dynasty’s toppling in 1911, river infrastructure became part of something beginning to resemble a nation. This is not a democratic community combining the sum of all its parts, but the imaginings and impulses of a bourgeois elite. And so, in a new political climate, these dykes continued to hold at bay the mighty potential of the Yellow river which wound its way down from the Tibetan plateau to the Chinese heartland. But with river engineering under the auspices of nationalism, it became vulnerable to national wars and geopolitical intrigue.

In 1938 the Kuomintang (KMT) deliberately demolished parts of the Yellow River dykes to halt the advance of Japanese imperialist troops. The deliberations and decisions that led to the deliberate demolition reveals the structure of feeling developing in 1937 at the time of the Second Sino-Japanese war. Chiang Kai-Shek and his KMT advisers revealed not only their total disdain for Chinese peasant life but additionally a deep alienation from the ancient landscape. The energy and untameability of the Yellow River are the meditations of many great works of Daoist literature. Confucian philosophy had grander political designs for water management and believed it could constrain and control the river. Half a century earlier, the 1887 great flood which killed up to 2 million people played a role in the unravelling of the Qing dynasty’s ‘mandate of heaven’ political guaranty. This is the ancient landscape nationalism co-opted: Its art, literature and poetry were deployed to embroider a nationalist imagining within the continuum of an ancient civilisational narrative around the mythos of the Yellow River. In each piece of printed media produced, the imagining of a Chinese nation was melded together, not only a political entity but a bio-geographical assemblage. A jingoistic hubris was concocted on the hot flames of anti-communism, feudal reactionism and anti-Japanese sentiments. And so, in 1938, the KMT was emboldened to weaponise its landscape in a scorched-earth strategy, ‘using water as substitute for soldiers’ (以水代兵 yishui daibing). The damage was catastrophic. Figures of casualties are uncertain due to the propagandised climate of the time and the inflation of figures to further stoke anti-Japanese jingoism. What is certain is hundreds of thousands of peasants were killed in Henan province and neighbouring Anhui and Jiangsu. Millions more were displaced and left destitute.

Tarbela Dam: A New Promethean Tale

It is highly unlikely that any Pakistani political decision today will deliberately sabotage their own Tarbela dam which sits 70km North of the capital Islamabad. But there are some striking parallels to be drawn concerning the structures of feeling that lead to the management and mismanagement of river systems. In times of onslaught from imperial interlopers, decisions are made which prove fatal to local riverine populations. Just as a mood of panic permeated among the general class of the KMT, the impending colonial violence of climate change related flooding in Pakistan will induce panic in the near future. Our methods are predicated on the myth that we can control the flow of great rivers and bend them to our will. Their waters are diverted and dammed, contorted to the whims of civilisational, nationalistic, or colonial initiatives. The imaginations of future river management are today deeply entwined in colonially ordained pathways of development. In this context, the construction of Tarbela dam itself and the general development strategy for irrigation and energy production, is the lived legacy which continues to leave Pakistan at the mercy of mother nature and imperial plunderers.

Taberla dam is a ticking-time bomb for what can only be considered man-made flooding. River flooding is inevitable but the intensity of flooding and where it inflicts damage is accountable to dam and irrigation infrastructure and anthropogenic climate change. The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) reported earlier this year that Tarbela dam has crossed its 95% capacity threshold for water conservation. The national strategy of creating dams like Diamer-Bhasha up-river from Tarbela only push the inevitable unleashing of more calamitous flooding further down the line. Construction of Diamer-Bhasha dam on the Indus River is currently underway, which will only increase the life of Tarbela dam by 35 years. Myopic planning of this kind is not equipped to cope with the unpredictability of climate change related flooding, heightening risks of potential flooding in areas far closer to dense urban populations. In the marvelling of engineering feats such as Tarbela dam, we fall into complacency traps. In the historic decisions to contain water in lieu of operating in harmony with its natural flow, we are at the mercy of what happens when the Indus decides to break free of its confines. Abnormal monsoon rains in 2022 precipitated devastating floods which existing damming infrastructure was helpless to mitigate. Currently a Silt Delta is fast approaching Tarbela dam threatening to block three of its major tunnels which would significantly stunt its irrigation and electricity generation functions. A Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) study claimed some 0.5 million tons of silt and sand are added to the lake every day.

The World Bank funded the construction of this dam in 1968. The project was a joint venture with Italian firm Impreglio. 55 years later, German and Chinese engineers with Pakistanis as junior partners plan to finish the new construction of the fifth hydropower extension by the summer of 2025. This is being significantly financed by the World Bank to a sum of $390 million. Joint ventures enterprises with World Bank funding have historically been used to build large infrastructural projects in the global south. However, these are not benign developments. They are a continuation of the alien administration of a native land, emerging out of imperial relationships which delineate the development pathways of postcolonial nations. An elite consensus amongst a comprador colonial class and multinational interests concocts the dogma for industrial development. Peter Evans in his analysis of rapid industrialisation in Brazil calls this the ‘triple alliance’ of multinational, state and ‘elite local’ capital. Not only do these projects ravage the local environment and displace local populations, but they create a structure of debt-dependency. Agrarian production via irrigation and industrial production that is stimulated by Tarbela dam power generation is oriented around export markets which extract wealth from Pakistan. In fraternising with these would be engineers of nature, we play a dangerous game with people who rarely have any skin in the game themselves. We transfer sovereignty over resources to the ‘triple alliance’ who have always shown utter disdain for human life and welfare. Shimmering on the surface above the tranquil reservoir of Tarbela is a depth of complacency and hubris which mirrors those great engineers of nature that vied for Promethean control in the 20th Century. In servitude to the greedy machinations of metropolitan capital and designs of the World Bank and IMF, Pakistan further sinks itself into an export driven mode of production perpetuating its underdeveloped economic stasis and continuing to side-line climate related threats from the conversation about development.

The financial triumvirate act as demi-Gods in the era of ‘green development’ and seem set to guide Pakistan on its Promethean model. Instead of fire, water is domesticated to pave the way for ‘civilisational’ growth. But no divinity is spared for Pakistan as it is consigned to Prometheus’ rock-bound condition, prisoner of its geography, year on year, ever more vulnerable to the man-made flooding of the Indus. Every year flood relief aid will pour in to alleviate some of the worst suffering and replenish supplies, only for devastation to strike the following summer. Tarbela dam’s primary function is irrigation, yet its capacity to provide sustainable and managed irrigation for agricultural development is not evident. A secondary function of Tarbela dam is harnessing its potential for hydroelectric power. In the years 2021-2022, hydroelectric power accounted for 26% of Pakistan’s total electricity generation. After the fifth extension hydropower project at Tarbela dam is completed, installed capacity will increase by 1530 MW from 4888 MW to 6418 MW. According to the World Bank, this will account for nearly 20% of installed capacity in the country. Despite this gradual diversification of Pakistan’s energy sector, Almost 60% of electrification is still a product of burning fossil fuels, including 36% from imported liquid natural gas and oil. Neither the promises of irrigation management, nor a transition to sovereign green energy production are feasible under the dam agenda.

From Dykes to Dams – An ancient partnership revived

We owe our current Promethean predicament in large part to imperial hubris and the auspices of unregulated and ill thought through capitalist development models. As the unipolar world under American Empire implodes and a multipolar political economy matures, an opportunity for reconfiguring relationships with the elements is ripe. And in this new climate, the social relations trampled and suffocated under the boot of imperialist development, also have the possibility for transformation. The protagonist in the anti-hegemonic axis is China. The potential Heraclean hero with the power to unshackle Prometheus from his torment.

China’s history of natural disasters exacerbated by human decisions have imprinted on them a residual respect for their landscape. It is imperative that the lesser-known histories of the flooding of the yellow river in 1938 and the 1887 great flood do not fade from memory and instead undergird an international bio-political consciousness. China has the technical and engineering expertise to steer Pakistani River management in a direction which can harness the power of the Indus torrents while not succumbing to conventional 20th Century notions of bending nature to our will. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to revive the spirit of the ancient silk road. The Chinese Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was formally included in China’s 13th 5 year-plan in 2015. China acutely values Pakistan as its corridor to the Indian Ocean and the deep seaport at Gwadar in Balochistan. Long term and centralised administration of shared river resources must accompany any serious economic development plans. China bears a moral responsibility for its downstream Pakistani partner. China’s rapid industrialisation has significantly contributed to the melting of its Tibetan glaciers and its own vested interests in a stable Pakistan demand a consolidation of CPEC in a way which rigorously engages with regional river management on a holistic level. China’s historic battle to attain sovereignty over its land and resources and its own history of engineering nature to its advantage and detriment are essential histories in rejuvenating its ancient partnership with Pakistan.

Beavers create dams. They alter their environments in a process of creative destruction, twig by twig, birthing a new habitat. No one would begrudge a beaver for making a dam, least of all those new organisms who thrive in the new conditions. Beavers work in communities with total sovereignty over their resources and an intimate intuition of their environment. A beaver policy is the only way to ensure that Pakistan can navigate the trials and tribulations of the coming decades. This necessitates a body of work which can harness the ancient wisdom of the Indus to petition, lobby and leverage against the pernicious forces of capital dominion over Pakistan’s beautiful landscape and peoples. A collaboration of geological, anthropological, bio-political and legal research and a cohort of spokespeople for the indigenous rights to the land, has the potential to create an infrastructure of accountability for perpetrators of manmade flooding – and reclaim sovereignty one meander at a time. What role China plays in this process is up for grabs. What is certain is that ‘natural disasters’ is the language of a bygone age. In the epoch of oligarchies and metropolitan marauders we must recalibrate our understandings of the politics of water and dispel the 20th Century notion that national disputes are to blame for water related violence. The Indus doesn’t respect the fictions of the map. Any meaningful mitigation of future flooding will have to interrogate our shared histories of Promethean naivety to transcend these fictions too.

ⁱ ‘Water level crosses maximum capacity in Tarbela Dam: PDMA’, The Nation, 11th August 2023, https://www.nation.com.pk/11-Aug-2023/water-level-crosses-maximum-capacity-in-tarbela-dam-pdma (Accessed 30th November 2023).

ⁱⁱ The Tarbela Dam Project, Haripur District, Water Technology, https://www.water-technology.net/projects/tarbela-dam-project/ (Accessed 30th November 2023).

ⁱⁱⁱ Tarbela Dam faces fast-moving silt delta’, The Express Tribune, 12^th September 2022, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2376151/tarbela-dam-faces-fast-moving-silt-delta#:~:text=However%2C%20the%20dam%20faces%20a,been%20collected%20in%20the%20lake (Accessed 3rd December 2023).

^iv ‘PM breaks ground for US $ 807 million Tarbela 5th Extention Hydropower project’, Associated Press of Pakistan Digital, https://www.app.com.pk/national/pm-breaks-ground-for-us-807-million-tarbela-5th-extention-hydropower-project/ (Accessed 3rd December 2023).

^v Peter Evans, Dependent development: the alliance of multinational, state and elite local capital in Brazil, (Princeton, NJ, 1979).

^vi ‘Energy’, Pakistan Economic Survey 2021-2022, 286. http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_21/14-Energy.pdf (Accessed 3rd December 2023).

^vii ‘PM breaks ground..’ Associated Press of Pakistan Digital, (Accessed 3rd December 2023).

^viii Tarbela Fourth Hydropower Extension Project (T4HP), The World Bank, 25 February 2020. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/factsheet/2020/02/25/tarbela-fourth-hydropower-extension-project-t4hp (Accessed 3rd December 2023).